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Criminal Justice
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Prediction of violent behaviour

Professionals’ appraisal

D.A. Louw

University of the Free State, Republic of South Africa

C.C. Strydom

University of the Free State, Republic of South Africa

K.G.F. Esterhuyse

University of the Free State, Republic of South Africa

This article focuses on the factors that are deemed important by magistrates and psychologists in the prediction of dangerous or violent behaviour. Five case studies, in which the risk of violence came into play, were presented to the respondents (85 magistrates and 52 psychologists) with the aid of a self-compiled questionnaire. The opinions of the legal practitioners and psychologists concerning the risk of violence that was involved in each case study were tested on the basis of two questions: (i) To what degree is the person in the case study a danger to the community? and (ii) Which risk factors were decisive in respect of Question 1? There was agreement between the two professional groups regarding risk factors. However, in certain cases there was a difference between the two professional groups in respect of the weight allocated to the specific risk factors (for example, psychologists attached more value than the legal practitioners to age, race, gender, the absence of a criminal record, the absence of remorse and drug addiction). Another insight-giving finding was that the opinions of the psychologists concerning risk factors are more substantially supported by existing research than those of magistrates.

Key Words: dangerousness • prediction • professional appraisal • risk • violent behaviour

Criminal Justice, Vol. 5, No. 4, 379-406 (2005)
DOI: 10.1177/1466802505057717
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